Reclaiming soils to sustain maize and soybean productivity in the Midwestern US given climate change

I build a model that explains Midwestern US maize and soybean yield as a function of weather and soil capability. Climate change is expected to reduce mid-century maize and soybean yields in the Midwest by 8% to 28% and 7% to 23%, respectively, depending on cropped land’s soil capability and severity of climate change, compared to baseline values calculated with no climate change. I find that small improvements in the capabilities of the most marginal cropped soils can completely reverse the predicted yield losses due to climate change. Further, small investments in the reclamation of the Midwest’s least capable cropped soils would greatly reduce the risk of low yield outcomes under the future Midwestern climate. While I demonstrate that investments in soil reclamation on the least capable Midwestern soils can enhance social welfare under expected climate change (assuming reclamation costs are reasonable), economists will need to work closely with agronomists to identify where and what types of reclamation projects would generate most cost-effective returns in the Midwest under